The global TV market in 2026 is expected to experience mild fluctuations amid intensifying stock competition

The global TV market in 2026 is expected to experience mild fluctuations amid intensifying stock competition. Sigmaintell forecasts full‑year shipments of 219 million units, representing a year‑on‑year decline of 0.6%, while Omdia projects 210 million units, a year‑on‑year increase of 1%. Growth will be primarily driven by World Cup‑related stocking, the ongoing shift toward larger screen sizes, and rising Mini LED penetration. Unit prices across different size segments will continue to show a clear gradient based on technology, screen size, and product positioning. The following is a detailed analysis by segment.

1. Key Global TV Demand Data for 2026

Major research institutions show slight differences in their 2026 shipment forecasts, but the overall trend remains stable with structural growth becoming the main focus.

By technology segment, Mini LED TV shipments are expected to reach 21.1 million units, up 58% year‑on‑year, with penetration approaching 10%. OLED TV shipments are projected at 6.7 million units, a year‑on‑year increase of 4.1%. LCD will continue to account for more than 90% of total shipments, with the 75‑inch+ large‑size segment seeing steady growth.

By region, North America and Europe will experience demand growth driven by the World Cup. The China market will continue its downward trend. Emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia will be led by cost‑effective models.

2. 2026 Global TV Average Selling Price (ASP) by Screen Size (by product tier, RMB/USD, January 2026 data)

Note: The following price ranges include panel price increases, technology premiums, and promotional fluctuations. Significant variations exist across brands and channels.Key Factors Influencing TV ASP by Size

Technology Premium: Mini LED TVs in the 65‑85‑inch mid‑to‑high‑end segment are generally priced 30%‑80% higher than equivalent LCD models. OLED TVs remain 2‑3 times more expensive than LCD TVs, but their growth rate is slowing.

Size Gradient: TV prices rise significantly with increasing screen size. Each mainstream size jump (e.g., 55→65→75→85) typically results in a 30%‑50% increase in entry‑level pricing. With more large‑size panel capacity coming online, prices for 85‑inch+ models will continue to decline, driving higher penetration.

Brand and Channel: Premium brands such as Samsung, Hisense, and TCL typically command a 15%‑30% price premium over second‑tier brands for similar configurations. Online channels are generally 10%‑20% cheaper than offline channels, with an additional 5%‑15% discount during major promotional periods such as the World Cup and Black Friday.

Cost Pass‑through: Panel prices rose across the board in January 2026 (32‑65‑inch panels up by approximately USD 1 each), and memory chip prices also increased. These factors will support ASP stabilization in the entry‑to‑mid‑range segments, while premium models will maintain their pricing power through technological differentiation.

4. Key Demand and Price Trends

Irreversible Large‑size Trend: The 85‑inch+ segment will continue to gain share and become a major growth driver. Shipments of 100‑inch+ models are expected to exceed 2.5 million units, with falling prices accelerating adoption.

Mini LED to Become Mainstream in Mid‑to‑High‑end: With penetration approaching 10% in 2026, 65‑75‑inch Mini LED models will offer strong value for money, pushing the overall ASP upward.

Regional Differentiation: North America and Europe will see higher penetration of premium models, resulting in above‑average ASPs. Emerging markets will remain dominated by 43‑55‑inch entry‑level products with higher price sensitivity.